Sales of migraine treatments are set to grow at an annual rate of 5.8 per cent from around $3 billion (£1.9 billion) in 2013 to over $5 billion in 2023 across six major markets.
According to new forecasts from Division Resources Group, this growth will occur in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan, and will mainly take place in the second half of the 2013-2023 forecast period.
The expansion will largely be driven by the launch of two nontriptan acute therapies: Allergan's orally inhaled dihydroergotamine product Semprana (launching in the United States in 2016), and CoLucid's 5HT1F receptor agonist lasmiditan (launching in the major markets at the start of 2018).
These two treatments are expected to earn nearly $1.5 billion in major-market sales in 2023, serving those seeking nontriptan therapies due to non-response or to cardiovascular risks.
Division Resources predicts that the launch of five triptan reformulations will offset the generic erosion of the triptan class. Together, they are set to earn more than $800 million in major-market sales in 2023.
These are Teva's Zecuity (sumatriptan transdermal patch), Applied Pharma Research/tesa Labtech's zolmitriptan oral dispersible film (ODF), Avanir Pharmaceuticals/OptiNose's AVP-825 (sumatriptan intranasal powder), IntelGenX/RedHill Biopharma's Rizaport (rizatriptan ODF) and Suda's SUD-001 (sumatriptan oral spray).
Allergan's Botox will continue to drive growth in the prophylactic market as physicians become more comfortable prescribing the treatment to patients with chronic migraine. Its increasing use will help to drive over six percent annual growth in migraine prophylactic sales through 2023.
Acute treatments dominate the drug development pipeline, meaning there are significant opportunities for developers to address the need for more efficacious prophylactic drugs with reduced side effects.
Decision Resources group analyst Dr Angela Sparrow said: "Given the large acutely-treated migraine patient population, high-priced acute therapies targeting niche groups can still garner considerable market share while capturing only a small percentage of the patient share."
She added that no new prophylactic migraine treatments are expected to launch in the near-term, although the calcitonin gene-related peptide-targeted therapies are said to have potential.